It'll take a few days, but a foot on the way

Jan 7, 2019

I've gone through a lot of phases with this storm.

  First was excitement with a side of realism:

Then, when the models TOTALLY dropped it for 1.5 days, it was denial:

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And now, acceptance. It's still gonna be a good storm...even though it won't be as epic as I hoped for.

The biggest change over the last week or so watching this storm is the fact that instead of one larger low pressure system, it'll be two separate waves of energy.

The first moves in overnight Monday and lasts through much of the day on Tuesday.

This wave is light and all snow. Should be good for 3-6" at The Loaf.

Then there's a brief break on Tuesday night before the stronger of the two systems moves in on Wednesday.

This one is a bit more complicated because it's got coastal energy but it's also farther West than you'd ideally like to see.

As a result the rain/snow line will at least FLIRT with the mountains.

It'll flirt....but will it actually follow up?

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The GFS thinks so, but the EURO is much colder:

I'm inclined to side with the EURO, and the storm only gets colder as time goes on. So even a few sleet pellets in the morning on Wednesday won't mean anything by the time it's ripping on Wednesday afternoon.

Total amounts from THIS round:

So, if you like the maths you'll figure out that puts the Loaf in the 7-14" range for the storm. With a foot looking very likely in my opinion.

Enjoy it for the next few days; the weekend looks like a meat locker.

Carson out