Never-Before November

Nov 25, 2018

What an insane start to the season. Every snowfall measurement station in the state is recording this November as Top 3 Snowiest....and it isn't done yet.

Now before I get into our next storm, let's take a minute to look at the snowiest Novembers and what the following winter looked like:

Nothing too exciting here. Big November's didn't correspond to big winters.... and I'm not surprised. 

Think about it; you have the perfect snow pattern in November (typically a nice deep trough and the jet screaming just to our south), what are the chances you'll keep it in place for ANOTHER 4 months in a row? Pretty slim.

However, we are talking straight snowfall measurement here not what it means for skiing and boarding. When you're talking about a ski season you have to think about the base and it would be hard to argue this snow and big cold isn't VERY helpful for building a base and a solid defense against a possible winter thaw (if it so happens).

With that in mind; let's move on to our next storm.

It comes along on Monday night and into Tuesday and it's a Miller Type B Nor'easter. i.e. There's an energy transfer from an inland low to a coastal low. You can see it here:

See it? Ok, good. If not, whatever that's why I'm here.

So, no surprise still being several days out but there's a bit of a track/warmth disagreement in the models.

The EURO is colder and farther east:

And the GFS is west and warmer:

Now this is a departure and maybe counter-intuitive...but at the Loaf we actually want to root for the warmer/west solution.

The reason I say that is the EURO is sexy in the solution, but it really bands the best snow just away from the coastline and into Sebago. So while Bridgton will get crushed (shout out to Shawnee!), the heaviest snow will stay from the Loaf. 

We'd be much better off with a westward track that gave the coast rain; but banded better dynamics over us.

I'll iron it out over the next 24 hours. But chances of 6"+ like pretty high.

Carson Out.