I'm so excited, and I just can't hide it

By Keith Carson

Rumors of a storm next Monday have been swirling around the weenie world since the weekend. (I’m always impressed how much avid skiers are also weather weenies.)

When the models are locked into a similar looking bomb of a storm that far in advance, it gets your attention–but unlike the last system, this one is going to have a rain/snow line issue most likely, riding just a bit inside of what we consider the “storm benchmark.”

The thing is, that could be ideal for the Loaf.

Lookthis storm is still 4-5 days out…so a lot can change. But this was me when I watched the latest models come in:


As it stands, the Loaf is right in that perfect spot between a strong coastal front and the low pressure system itself:

Inside runner with a well-positioned warm front

The EURO model is similar:

Inside runner with a well-positioned warm front

Both of these models put the Loaf into a really dynamic snow region that could result in over a foot of snow.

Now we wait to see the fine tuning of the track.

The biggest risk is that this thing jogs too far west and becomes a bit warm in the mid levels. That’s certainly possible, but it helps us that most of the model ensemble clusters favor a more easterly path.

The weenie in me wants to see the track actually wobble a bit farther East, out to sea in the next day or two, so that we are set up well for the inevitable NW model track jog within 48-72 hours of an event. But that’s all inside baseball. All we need to know is there’s big potential in Monday and I’m watching it like a hawk.

Meteorological map from Keith Carson

 Carson out.

KEITH CARSON | Weather Czar