3 Storms. 1 Week.

by Keith Carson
What’s up kids? Hope you all had a good summer and oddly extended Fall; it’s time for the first entry in our long-running (5 years?) Carson Weather Weenie blog.

My interest is piqued (look it up, that’s correct) by what is shaping up to be a very active pattern next week.

Looks like we will have 3 significant storm systems all in the timeframe of Monday-Friday. Let’s discuss:

Storm #1 - The Grinch 
The first storm is the least promising for the Loaf. All indications are that it’ll be an inside runner that will trap us in the warm sector. If you don’t speak nerd that looks like this…

storm map 1

The bulk will be rain and temperatures will warm significantly, perhaps into the upper 40s if the flow is just right. Of course, there’s still time for this to trend a bit colder, but the models have been pretty consistent on this one for the last few days, so the window is closing fast. When the GFS, EURO and Canadian all agree…it’s usually right.
The Canadian:

storm map 2

Storm #2 - The Powder Day Dreamer
The next storm arrives on Wednesday, and this one looks a lot more promising.
It will approach from a more southerly trajectory which will limit the chances for us to get pulled into the warm sector again.

storm map 3

If that path holds it will put the Loaf into snow, and perhaps some heavy bands of snow. 
The other thing I like about this storm is it will be more coastal, which will allow for more rapid strengthening of the low-pressure system. This isn’t always the case, but typically the deeper the low, the colder the flow on the backside of it. This is why sometimes you’ll hear meteorologists (or other weenie varieties) use the term “manufacturing its own cold air”…that’s this situation.
The GFS isn’t as bullish on the development of the low, but still keeps the Loaf squarely on the cold side of this storm…

storm map 4

All things considered, this one looks promising. We will fine-tune it as we get closer.
Storm #3 - The Wildcard
By storm #3 we are deep into “long-range” territory for forecasting, so details get fuzzy. But all major deterministic models anticipate another storm system over New England.
storm map 5
At the moment, this one looks like a bit of a hybrid. It has some inside runner characteristics, but it also pulls down some cold air which could be helpful for the mountain. Honestly, I’m not sure about this one…the pattern is too loose and it’s too far out. But it could be the “make or break” storm of the week since it’ll tip the balance as to how much rain and home much snow the Loaf gets through the course of the week.

- Carson out.

KEITH CARSON | Weather Czar