Thursday, November 10, 2016

Ladies and gentlemen welcome your 2016-2017 ski season. I'm Keith Carson and for those of you that don't know me...good for you, you probably have some semblance of social life.

BuzzFeed summary: I'm a weatherman at WCSH/WLBZ in Portland, formerly of The Weather Channel, formerly formerly a professional meteorologist at a private weather company in Boston. And I wear a mean skinny suit.

My goal throughout the season will be to provide you with accurate weather forecasts specifically for Sugarloaf and all its beautiful terrain. I'm a bit of a maverick when it comes to long term calls, short term trend bucking and stand alone forecasting; but I think you'll find that my calls pay off more than they burn you.

Alright, so let's get going.

Frankly the next week ain't exactly going to get you excited about this upcoming winter. It looks a mild for mid November. There will be one decent cool shot on Saturday: 

But that will just drop temperatures about 5 F off average with no moisture to produce snow. (By the way, what I'm showing you here is called an 850 mb temperature map, it is the best way to see the large scale airmass changes in the atmosphere).

After that cool shot it's one warming ridge:

After another:  

Looking out 10-14 days there's not much that says to me we are going to lock into a truly cold pattern. There will be transient shots of cold, but nothing lasting. 

No worries though, it's still very early. In fact, I have a theory that early season snow begets a less than average winter in general. I did some research with the National Weather Service and they agreed. Of the 12 years it snowed significantly in October across interior Maine, 9 of those winters ended up at or below average. Just think back to the winter of 2015. Nothing....nothing...nothing..POW right to the kisser!

(Side note: This snowfall rule correlates to lower lying areas best. Mountain peaks often get big snow independent of the general pattern - like the foot or so the Sugarloaf summit saw last month.)

See you on the mountain soon enough.


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