Snowy Start

Thursday, November 24, 2016

I told you in last week's blog that I liked the troughy signals coming out of the mid range pattern. 

 Sure enough, here we are kicking the season off after several days of optimum snow making weather combined with consistent snow squall activity.  

So what does the future hold? Mostly more good stuff.  

Thanksgiving Day should provide a nice setting for the first turns of the season. It'll be mostly cloudy with snow showers and squalls developing in the afternoon. Some of those squalls could put down a quick inch or two at the summit.  

Black Friday is similar (You guys gonna stand outside Walmart at 3 am so you can get that nose hair trimmer for $0.96?) with a likely INCREASE in snow shower activity.  There might be a warm air push towards late afternoon that will change the base over to rain showers for a bit, but that should be after 1 PM, and the changeover will be brief. 

keith map 1

  (Note the green area indicating rain, trying to push toward The Loaf)  

Ok onto the bigger fish to fry: A coastal storm on Saturday.  

The pattern has been spitting out signs of a Nor'easter for a couple of days now, but the key is the exact track this time of the year. When the jet stream "troughs out" enough to bring the cold air, sometimes the storm track is too far south. When the jet stream ridges back north, warm air can invade. It's typical November stuff.  

This Saturday looks interesting because the coastal storm itself will be well offshore, but it will have an inverted or "Norlun" trough to it.  

map 2

A Norlun trough is basically an area of precipitation that sticks out of a low pressure system and connects to another low to the northwest. It is THE WORST to forecast. In fact, it was the 1 in my 17-1 #Lockitin accuracy streak a few years ago. It's the haunter of my dreams, Kanye to my Taylor, Eli to my Tom.  

That being said, I'm going to go out on a limb with an early snowfall map:  

map3

This includes the snow squalls from Thursday and Friday as well, but the main thrust of snow would likely come Saturday afternoon through Saturday evening with the NORLUN trough.   

As you can see Sugarloaf is in a good position to benefit...although the bullseye actually be way up in "The County"  

In the wake of the new snow Monday and Tuesday look GORGEOUS with mostly sunny skies and light winds.  

Unfortunately I don't think y'all are going to like the looks of the next storm that rolls in around December 1st. Plenty of time for that to change, but for now it looks like #BlowTorch.    

Carson Out.  

https://twitter.com/KeithCarson

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