We're About to Get Trough-y

Thursday, November 17, 2016

More often than not, this time of the year we aren't looking to nail down specific Nor'easter snowfall totals (although it DOES happen- See 19 years ago yesterday, Portland received about a foot of snow), instead we are looking for broad brush signs of winter.

Ross

If it's those signs you are looking for (if not, what are you doing here?), then I have some stuff you are gonna like, and some you aren't.  

1. We are about to get a little trough-y- Even in February it's pretty hard to get snow under a large scale ridge. In November it's impossible. But, after two more ridge-y , mild days (Friday, Saturday) we will dig into a trough in the Northeast for Sunday-Thursday, like so:

ECMWF 1

 I know there's a lot going on in this map, but just focus on the blue colors being pulled over Maine. That indicates cold air being advected in.

That cold air will be pulled down in conjunction with some moisture, so The Loaf will probably get some snow shower activity on Sunday night and into Monday.  Nothing extraordinary, but the summit in particular could pick up 2-4" by Monday night.

GFS

2. It'll be cold enough to blow snow Sunday, Monday, Tuesday, Wednesday  As that trough settles in, the coldest air will start to filter down. That will mean lows in the 20s on Sunday night but most likely in the TEENS on Monday and Tuesday night. 

Temp Map

3. No Major Storms Right Now I said you'd like SOME of what I had to say (#BumbleFirstDateLines). Despite the trough-y pattern shift and chilly readings, there's no major collision of the cold AND the precipitation in the near future. That means no Nor'easters. There IS an interesting little signal around the 25th, but it's just a hint of something and far from a "lock it in" moment.  

Carson out.  

https://twitter.com/KeithCarson

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