The Tide Has Turned

Thursday, March 9, 2017

UPDATE (March 13): Although skeptical at first, I tested this storm on all sides...track, mid level temperatures, dynamics and at this point it has passed with flying colors.

The Result: Gonna be a biggie.

TIMING:

Snow begins mid morning over southern Maine. 

It wouldn't surprise me to see some coastal convergence snow even earlier than 9 AM over York County. Often these really wrapped up Nor'easters do that before they totally bomb out to our south. The snow shield expands by noon and snowfall rates increase over southern Maine.

 By the evening commute it's snowing most everywhere and it's absolutely nuking snow over southern Maine and the Midcoast. Snowfall rates there could approach 3" an hour.

 Heavy snow continues overnight Tuesday before things lighten a bit on Wednesday. 

One thing I'll say, the RPM model (Depicted above) LOVES to clear out Nor'easters too fast, so I'd pencil in at least light snow through mid-day on Wednesday. No doubt, however, the heaviest stuff is Tuesday afternoon through early Wednesday morning.

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Without a doubt, the last few weeks have been difficult for the Loaf. It's been generally mild and even the cold snaps have come right after rain...adding to ice issues. But I believe the next 7 days will usher in a fresh dose of winter; right in time for spring.

This weekend will be very cold, again. That will allow for more snowmaking, adding to the nice recovery that began LAST weekend.  

(Me and some friends last weekend. Little known fact: Posing in front of Experts Only signs is one step away from duck-face-peace-sign. It's not good)

BIG POTENTIAL MIDWEEK

The cold is all well and good, but the real game changer could come midweek.

Computer models have picked up on a nice Nor'easter signal for Tuesday into Wednesday.

Clearly, being 5 days out, nothing is a lock. But if everything goes to plan this storm will put down 6"+ for a good portion of Maine and over a foot for the sweet spots.

Ain't she purdy?

So, yeah, it looks promising. I WILL say I have some concerns that the storm track could shift to the east farther, which would put The Loaf out of the best snow zone. But, honestly, those concerns are mainly a gut feeling...the data supports a major storm.

Either way, this storm is going to warrant some more regular updates of this blog, so check back here over the next few days for the latest. Could this be the stuff of spring skiing dreams?

Carson Out.

http://twitter.com/keithcarson 

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