New Year, New Pow

Tuesday, January 2, 2018

It's been a good start to the season; but let's just admit...it's been cold as heck.

I was out there this weekend and the snow was great; but my face (which isn't great to begin with) may never recover.

Well what better way to break a frigid snap than with a Nor'easter?

There's been a lot of buzz about this storm over the past few days...and for good reason: It's a beast.  

It's what we call a Miller Type A storm and it will form off the coast of Florida but immediately grow wintry in nature. (In fact Charleston, SC could be plowing sleet pellets. If they had plows that is....)  

The storm really gets impressive, however, off the coast of the Mid Atlantic on Thursday morning.

Pressure, which is a great measure for the intensity of the storm, will be falling off a cliff through the day on Thursday into Thursday night as it EASILY qualifies for "Bombogenesis" level strengthening. 

Here's where it gets interesting: TRACK IS EVERYTHING with this one. Now, of course track is important in every winter storm; but it's usually the difference between 3" and 6" for example. In this storm, the difference with just a 75 mile track shift is more like 6" vs 20". The stakes are high.

It'll be ripping snow by Thursday night with S+ rates very likely. At the loaf it'll be cold still, which will allow quite a bit of fluff factor to the snow. We typically use a 10 inches of snow for every 1 inch of liquid ratio to calculate snowfall maps...but in this case I'm comfortable using 15:1 pretty easily.

As you can I've got the Loaf in 6-12" and if we are all being honest here (I try to avoid it), there's potential for more with just a small track shift west.

The only fly in the ointment will be the winds, which could affect lifts . Gusts will be over 60 MPH along the coastline during the peak but should dissipate faster in the mountains.

I'll keep you update on this one and let you know if we get that 75 mile west wiggle we need to turn this from "Awesome" to "EPIC."

Carson Out.

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