Forecast: Winter Goes "Full Barney"
From a raw cold standpoint the next two weeks will feel more like winter than the entire 2015-16 season. Sure, that's like saying "Keith Carson is more jacked than that guy from Road Trip"...the bar is low. But you get the point.
(Remember when Tom Green was a thing?)
We've got two major polar air outbreaks AND a potential snow event to talk about.
An arctic front will drive through on Friday providing a few snow squalls for The Loaf. It probably won't add up to much, but snow squalls in this kind of frontal zone are similar to convective thunderstorms in the summer...they can blow up over finite areas and over-perform.
After the front is through the weekend looks generally sunny but definitely cold. Cold being defined as highs in the mid 20s at the base and lows around 8-9 F at the base. So you can figure what that will mean for the summit, time for those Hot Chillys. (Cue Maine tough guy rant about how 8 F ain't that cold. Blah, Blah, I wear Cargo shorts out in that.)
With that cold air in place a storm system will start to gather strength to our southwest by Sunday afternoon into Sunday night. There are two very different computer model forecasts for that happens to this storm when it gets near The Loaf.
Option 1: GFS American Model
The GFS never "phases" or merges together the upper level low over the Great Lakes and the developing coastal low. The result is a quick hit of light snow on Sunday afternoon/Sunday night and then a swing and a miss for the coastal low on Monday.
Originally the EURO model had a much bolder, snowier solution that "phased" the upper level low and the coastal low.
As of Thursday morning, however, the EURO backed off big time:
That solution brings some snow to The Loaf for sure, but it's not a smashing.
If this ends up being the final result it will mark the 3rd time in a row the GFS outperformed the EURO in relatively complex steering and amplification scenarios, which is shocking.
Oh and next weekend (16th,17th,18th) is going to be a Polar Vortex beatdown.
In the weather weenie world we call this "Full Barney" on account of the crazy purples flying down from Canada. If this verifies overnight lows will dip below -10 F easily.
Arctic fronts, snow squalls and Full Barney. Winter has arrived.