A Little Snow and Plenty Cold

Thursday, February 2, 2017

First of all thanks to Noelle for pinch hitting for me on the blog last week. I was busy in Hawaii more or less becoming a professional surfer:

Now that I'm back to weather nerd/skier mode, I see a decent pattern for the next 5-7 days.

A secondary cold front and trailing trough will swing through Thursday and Friday, although it won't be a bit hit by any stretch, those features should be good for some snow shower activity.

(The blue is the model indicating upslope snow showers)

 In between snow showers it looks partly cloudy through Saturday morning.

The weekend will be pretty quiet and plenty chilly. It shouldn't be why-did-I-even-come-out cold, just chilly....lows around 1-2 F and highs around 20 F.

Big Picture 

On Monday every weather weenie east of the Mighty Mississippi was drooling over the winter potential of next week.

The trough looked to be the right depth, not too deep to just crush us with cold air, not too shallow to pass storms to our north. But, as the details come more into focus; I don't think we will totally capitalize on the broad brush favorable setup.  

We WILL however get some snow on Sunday night into Monday from an upper level low that COULD have been so much more. 

An upper level low like that, without phasing, should be good for 3-4" of light, fluffy snow. The thing that annoys me, however, is that there is a coastal low right there to the southeast...but it's not going to transfer energy fast enough to bomb out into a Nor'easter. I'll let you know if this changes, but the signals aren't great right now.

Still, snow is snow.

Midweek another storm approaches. The models think it'll change to rain very quickly, but I'm going to bet against that.   

Almost EVERY time the models have had an "inside runner" this winter it has trended colder, and colder, and colder until you are talking snow for longer than anticipated.  

Will we stay all snow? Probably not. But we might be able to plow before we even talk about a changeover.

I'll let you know if anything major changes. Until then, see you at The Rack.

Carson Out. 

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