Snow Fresh-Up on Saturday, Pattern Amplifies
Overall, the first half of December was fully loaded winter style...especially when compared to last year. However, absent from this generally favorable and cold pattern were bigger storms- Nor'easter types. The problem is- typically when you crash pieces of polar air down from Canada, they come with dry air and high pressure. So, it's very hard (not impossible, but hard) to get big snow when you are sitting at -15 F. Plus that's brutally cold man, let's just call a spade a spade.
More recently we've entered a more moderate temperature regime which will annoy us at times with warm sector blasts (coming early next week), but will also provide us a better opportunity to get a coastal storm going, something that can really kick up the base.
Those are the broad strokes, here are the details:
Friday: Gorgeous day to enjoy the fresh snow from today. Relatively mild in the upper 30s, but not enough to get much melt going. Mostly sunny.
Saturday: Originally looked like another sunny day but the computer models have gotten beefier and beefier with a cold front swinging through, so now it looks like a small hit of snow for The Loaf during the afternoon.
That's 2 PM Saturday, with some light snow ongoing. Don't get too excited about it either though, this front is pretty washed out in the scheme of thing. So probably an inch or two. But if you need even MORE of a reason to ski on Christmas Eve Day (and the start of Hanukkah!), this will be a cold, holiday-mood-killing rain along the coastline.
Christmas: Back to sun for Christmas Day itself with highs in the mid 30s at the base, a bit below freezing at the summit.
Our next major storm looks like a mess
A low and associated frontal boundary will ride in from the west on Monday night into Tuesday and after dropping some initial snow will degrade into a freezing rain and eventually even rain event.
The above image is early Monday night, when it's still a mix. But I don't see how even The Loaf is going to avoid the warm sector on this one. Given Sugarloafs propensity to hang on to cold air I'll say some snow, then some freezing rain and a brief period of rain that shouldn't be too damaging.
By late Monday night the warm air is basically up in Quebec City. Lovely city by the way, just visited recently. It's very European, right down to the crepes.
Ok so that storm is a bit of a bummer but there might be something cooking for late in the week.
I see an upper level low, I see a coastal low, I see phasing...
Still way out there, but a more amplified pattern may reap some real benefits soon.