Active Pattern Continues: More Good Than Bad

Tuesday, December 19, 2017

So far I give our active pattern a 6/10 (would ski).

It's kept us on our toes, and hit us with periods of nice snow....but it hasn't buried us with a big one yet. That's largely due to the lack of phasing of the Polar and Subtropical jets.  

That trend continues into the holiday weekend it appears with a few shots of precipitation, but no whoppers.  

The games will begin on Friday with the front end of a warm front:

The good news is these "front end thumps" can be pretty strong with WAA lift occurring. So I could see several inches of snow from this.

The bad news; with a warm front thump...comes the actual warm front.  

So, although all hope is not lost since it's still far out there, it appears likely a change to rain will occur on Saturday.

We get a break on Sunday briefly before another system moves in for X-mas Eve and X-mas day itself.  

The EURO Is borderline with this system when it comes to temperatures, so it wants to introduce ice. However, the GFS is much colder and snowier for The Loaf.  

Normally I'm a EURO guy but it's sometimes too fast to scour out colder air so let's keep an eye on some snow on Christmas.

A win for the GFS AND Christmas POW...wouldn't that be a heck of a gift....

Carson Out.  

@KeithCarson 

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