The Broad Strokes are Promising

Friday, December 1, 2017

I know, you are getting antsy.  

It doesn't matter that it's barely December, you want to see that snow.

And although I admit the short range is relatively dismal (quiet weekend, rain likely on Tuesday), the mid to long range broad strokes look very promising. 

I've been eyeing this for a while now, but the synoptic pattern will look something like this by late next week:

Big fat trough, just where you want it.

See if the trough is too wide you'll get the cold, but you'll never get the storms...they'll miss to the south.  

But a pattern like this should allow the cold air in but also create a strong area of what we call  baroclinicity, which is essentially a sharp contrast in air mass that can drive the intensification of storms.   

So the devil will be in the details. The trough will be right from Thursday through the weekend and even thereafter. The EURO places a low nearby late in the week, but the GFS waits until the weekend. . 

Truthfully, neither really knows yet. But I'm on record saying, I see the broad strokes...and I like the picture it paints for the Loaf:

Carson Out.  


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